[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261320 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-261445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN MO INTO SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261320Z - 261445Z

STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

GRADUAL INCREASE IN ELEVATED STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM PIKE/LINCOLN COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL MO SWWD
INTO MILLER/CAMDEN COUNTIES. 12Z SGF SOUNDING INDICATES THAT STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR ELEVATED PARCELS WITH MUCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-65KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX IS
PROVIDING BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR EVOLVING STORMS.

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN
IL/SWRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS MAY TEND
TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...AND
GIVEN THE FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THUS...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

38369167 39289075 39578991 39628802 39278582 38378566
38048618 37508970 37309121 

WWWW