[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260428 
OKZ000-TXZ000-260630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/NWRN TX TO SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 260428Z - 260630Z

STRONG TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX SOUTH PLAINS AND
NWRN TX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ENEWD INTO PARTS OF SWRN OK. A FEW
OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED BUT A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING PLANNED.

A FEW CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF LBB AND SOUTH OF
CDS WITH STRONGER STORMS MOVING INTO NWRN STONEWALL...NRN DICKENS
AND KING COUNTIES. EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS PER 21Z ETAKF/00Z WRF4 QPF...AND TO SOME EXTENT RUC QPF
THROUGH 06Z. IT APPEARS THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WAS AIDING INTENSIFICATION
OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS THEN
BEING LIFTED ACROSS OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST TX AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS. SOURCE
REGION LAPSE RATES NOTED IN MAF 00Z SOUNDING COUPLED WITH STRONG
CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN THE 700-300MB LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE AND HAIL. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN SUBTLETIES OF HOW LONG STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. LIMITED COVERAGE IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST ETA AND GFS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 05/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

33149966 33000084 33610181 34400183 35030022 34549892 

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