[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252102 
KYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-252200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN KY SOUTHERN IN SWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 252102Z - 252200Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON ACROSS THIS REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A DIFFUSE E-W ORIENTED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY FROM SRN IND INTO NERN KY.  AIR
MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG...WITH LITTLE
IF ANY CAP.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 40 KT
FROM 0-6 KM/...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO
ONE OR MORE SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES WITH ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UPSTREAM
OVER SRN IL AS STORMS TRACK EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING.  SINCE LEADING DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO POSE A RISK
OF SEVERE...WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

..EVANS.. 05/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

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