[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252016 
ILZ000-MOZ000-252145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO INTO SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286...

VALID 252016Z - 252145Z

CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW.

LONG-LIVED HP SUPERCELL OVER MONROE/ST. CLAIR COUNTIES IN SWRN IL IS
MOVING 285/35-40KTS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL FROM COU SEWD THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS STORM SEWD ACROSS WASHINGTON AND
POSSIBLY RANDOLPH AND PERRY COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS NEAR JEF AND TBN WILL APPROACH
WRN PORTION OF WW AREA WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO.

REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE SWLY FEED OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
/CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ INTO EVOLVING 
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED STORM COVERAGE AND RESULTANT COLD POOL
PRODUCTION WILL PROMOTE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH THE MOST INTENSE
CELLS.

..MEAD.. 05/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

39569148 39588875 38028877 37959150