[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251654 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-251830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251654Z - 251830Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A
WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN
OH/S-CNTRL LOWER MI WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH
CNTRL OH. TO THE W OF WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH
THE 70S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG AND DECREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE FAVORABLY VEERING
PROFILES AHEAD OF WARM FRONT...WHILE WIND PROFILES ARE MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL TO THE W WITHIN WARM SECTOR.

EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WARM
FRONT AND FARTHER TO THE W ACROSS WARM SECTOR AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WILL
EXIST AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 05/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

40208316 41338292 41928198 41978001 40187990 38638092
38248224 38638290 39648330 

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