[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251852 
TXZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251852Z - 252115Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN/SWRN TX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH STORMS IN THIS REGION. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

AT 18Z...SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS WRN TX INCLUDED A QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM ROW ENEWD TO 35S LBB AND NEWD INTO SWRN OK. A
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME SWD FROM THE
FRONT INTO THE BIG BEND AREA. ALOFT...BELT OF 50-60KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL NM NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...500MB WINDS OF 35-45 KT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS SWRN
TX THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DESPITE STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BASED ON MORNING MAF
SOUNDING...CONTINUED HEATING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE
LOW 90S...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAPPING ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT OR IN
VICINITY OF HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX ARE POSSIBLE AREAS FOR
INITIATION. GIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT...SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR
/45-55KT/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500
J/KG/ SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
SHOULD MITIGATE TORNADO THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DOWNDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OF
FAR SWRN TX. EARLY EVENING MODEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT ENEWD/EWD STORM
MOTIONS OF 15-20 KT.

..BANACOS.. 05/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

31630269 32880273 33300147 33530021 33339949 32379929
31489929 30739986 29980034 29980158 30200235 

WWWW