[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251612 
MOZ000-ILZ000-251745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251612Z - 251745Z

ISOLATED HAIL THREAT POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM
W OF COU WWD/SWWD TO SW OF SZL. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MESOANALYSIS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT STORMS
ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF SURFACE
FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...TRANSVERSE BANDING IN CIRRUS CLOUDS DENOTES
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS AND POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ATOP SURFACE-850MB FRONTAL ZONE. LOCAL
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST N OF FRONT INDICATE MUCAPES APPROACHING
1500 J/KG FOR ELEVATED PARCELS...SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MO AS WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY-LAYER CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS TSTMS ARE
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 05/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

38099439 38889402 39239246 38989068 38499040 37659091
37509344 37629416 

WWWW