[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251419 
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-251545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SRN IND/NRN/CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251419Z - 251545Z

RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SRN IL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

AS OF 1410Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF TSTMS OVER SRN IL/FAR WRN KY MOVING EWD AT AROUND 40KTS. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...SUGGESTING THAT COMPLEX IS ASSOCIATED
WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS
ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z BNA SOUNDING/
WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT LOUISVILLE VWP
INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH 0-1/0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 250 AND 400
M2/S2...RESPECTIVELY.

CONTINUED MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH THE
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..MEAD.. 05/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

38088871 38818808 39088669 39238533 38868362 38348283
37598315 37008479 37228765 37418888 

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