[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250923 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-251100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0423 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/SRN INDIANA...NRN KY...SWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284...

VALID 250923Z - 251100Z

BOW ECHO HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS
SUSPECTED...WW WILL BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 11Z EXPIRATION.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM NEAR EKN WWD TO JUST S CVG
THEN WNWWD TO INTERSECT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ARC NEAR DECATUR COUNTY
INDIANA...AS OF 9Z.  MCV OVER NWRN INDIANA -- AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF
MAXIMIZED ASCENT - ARE NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD -- WELL
N OF FRONT AND OVER RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS.  THIS
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS PRODUCED BY REMAINING
ACTIVITY TO REACH SFC AOA SEVERE LEVELS.  DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND S OF
FRONT ALONG SHALLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD BE CAPPED BY LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS AND SMALL MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WITH HAIL APCHG SEVERE LEVELS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHERE PARCELS ARE ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC.

..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...

37828327 37978654 38488718 39048629 39938581 40548589
40398331 

WWWW