[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250717 
MOZ000-KSZ000-250915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN
OK...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...

VALID 250717Z - 250915Z

CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD
ACROSS SERN KS THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z...CROSSING INTO MO ABOUT THAT
TIME.  SOME FORWARD DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG ITS NERN
PERIPHERY...IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT
FARTHER W ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION IN BOTH STATES.  HOWEVER...WITH
LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW MAXIMIZED FARTHER E...SEVERE
PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION ARE BECOMING MORE MARGINAL.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN PORTION MKC
METRO AREA SWWD TO JUST S OF ICT-P28 AND ACROSS ERN OK PANHANDLE. 
THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN/N-CENTRAL OK AND
SERN KS.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN MO WSWWD ACROSS NRN
TIER OF OK COUNTIES TO NEAR PNC...THOUGH AIR MASS TO ITS N -- OVER
SERN KS -- REMAINS WARM/MOIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F. 
STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT IN SGF RAOB AND IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AHEAD
OF SERN KS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE TO ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN FORCE
ASCENT FROM LLJ THROUGH CAP.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND 40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH EFFECTIVE LOWEST 6 KM. DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL EACH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS COMPLEX...NRN
PORTION OF WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MO
MCS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

37039893 38029727 38489563 38659353 37009357 

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