[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250445 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-250615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO AND WRN/CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 283...

VALID 250445Z - 250615Z

A COUPLE OF INTENSE BOW ECHO COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS TORNADO WATCH
283 AT THIS TIME. VERY STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THESE MESOSCALE BOWS AS THEY MOVE EAST AT 45-60KT OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. SRN BOW MOVING AT 55-60KT WILL MOVE TO THE ERN EDGE OF
THE WATCH...INDIANA BORDER...BEFORE 07Z. THE NRN BOW WHICH IS INVOF
WARM FRONTAL INTERSECTION APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER...
ABOUT 45KT...AND IS PRECEEDED BY A COUPLE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS ACROSS ERN MO AND SCNTRL IL WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME WIND EVENTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

21Z ETAKF APPEARS TO HAVE VERY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF CURRENT SEVERE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH VERY PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL DRY INTRUSION IN THE
MODEL DATA COINCIDENT WITH 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET. THUS CURRENT
STRONG/DEEP CONVECTIVE MIXING AND FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN A 
LONG-LIVED FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH WIND DAMAGE INTO THE MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 05/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

37849292 39329294 40838757 39388754 

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