[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250353 
OKZ000-250530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NCNTRL OK INTO NE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 250353Z - 250530Z

MAINLY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM
CNTRL OK N/NE INTO NCNTRL/NE OK. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME FROM CNTRL INTO ERN OK
WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL THREAT...WITH LIKELY E/NE EXPANSION OF TSTM
ACTIVITY INTO ERN OK AS LOW LEVEL JET PROGRESSIVELY VEERS OVERNIGHT.
REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS SUGGEST S/SW LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KTS IS
ALREADY IN PLACE...WITH ADDITIONAL LLJ INCREASE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AS SWLY ORIENTATION ENSUES. MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG PER LATEST
RUC GUIDANCE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS.

ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING TSTMS INVOF COLD FRONT IN SCNTRL KS MAY
BACKBUILD AND/OR SPREAD SEWD INTO NCNTRL/NE OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. OVERALL LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE MAIN HAZARD...WITH NOCTURNAL
STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER TENDING TO LIMIT DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

35099815 35809821 36659818 36869804 36939660 36849486
36099468 35209493 35129662 

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