[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242028 
MOZ000-KSZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NWRN/W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 275...

VALID 242028Z - 242200Z

INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER NERN KS.
ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

AS OF 2010Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED
TCU/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT FROM DONIPHAN SWD INTO LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES
IN FAR NERN KS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING FROM W OF STJ SWD TO
W OF OJC. LOCAL AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-3500
J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ONCE STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS. 0-1KM SRH OF
150-250 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM ACROSS THIS
AREA SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND
ANTICIPATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION.

WITH CONTINUED HEATING...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE W
ALONG BULGING DRYLINE. HERE TOO...LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

39979779 39989345 38089339 38089762 

WWWW