[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241939 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-242115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA/NWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 273...

VALID 241939Z - 242115Z

DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.

AS OF 19Z...MESOANALYSIS PLACED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW W OF CNK WITH
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ARCING NEWD INTO SERN NEB/FAR NWRN MO AND THEN
SEWD INTO E-CNTRL MO. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD TO JUST W OF
SLN/HUT. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS DEVELOPING NE OF
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER CLAY/ADAMS COUNTIES IN
S-CNTRL NEB WITH AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED ALONG WARM FRONT OVER RICHARDSON/NEMAHA COUNTIES IN FAR
SERN NEB. AIRMASS S OF DEVELOPING TSTMS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON /PER 18Z TOP SOUNDING/ WHERE MLCAPES HAVE
INCREASED TO 4000 J/KG.

EXPECT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF OF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG
WARM FRONT. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH
MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS /LCL HEIGHTS 800-1000 M/ WILL
SUPPORT STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY... EXTREME
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WILL PROMOTE VERY
LARGE HAIL GROWTH.

..MEAD.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

42119903 42149376 39879326 39879836 

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