[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241430
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241430 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0930 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO...ERN NEB...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241430Z - 241630Z

SCATTERED ELEVATED TO NEAR SURFACE-BASED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN MO.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED SOON.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST KS.  THESE STORMS ARE NEAR THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MO.  STORMS ALSO APPEAR TO
BE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER UVVS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LEAD
SHORTWAVE...DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
NEB INTO CENTRAL KS.  VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
OVER THIS AREA...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
STORMS...WHETHER ELEVATED OR SURFACE-BASED.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF TROUGH...WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS. TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR AS HIGH AS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SURFACE-BASED STORM WOULD LIKELY HAVE SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..HART.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

39249704 40439754 41379774 41729633 41369475 39849399
37599364 37259482 37619630 38419671 

WWWW