[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241403
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241403 
MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-241600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...ERN PA...NRN NJ...WRN MA/CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241403Z - 241600Z

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD
INTO ERN PA AND WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY OVER CENTRAL PA.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE. MODIFIED OKX SOUNDING WITH LOW 80S OVER UPPER 60S INDICATES
2000-3000 MUCAPE DEVELOPING.  

WIND FIELDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE...WITH LAGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR VECTORS WILL FAVOR FAST STORM
MOTIONS TOWARD THE ESE.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

39957868 41207821 41767762 42557683 43127516 42627266
42267272 41437326 40937385 39887550 

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