[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241624 
NYZ000-PAZ000-241830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL / WRN NY...CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241624Z - 241830Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL / WRN NY WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL PA.
 A WW WILL BE ISSUED.

CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE
REGION.  PRESSURE FALLS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG SRN NY/NRN PA BORDER
INDICATIVE OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NEW STORM GENERATION IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE.

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. 
ALTHOUGH 0-1 KM SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN
MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND LCL
HEIGHTS LOWER.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

41647857 42457843 43057699 42827541 41357619 40417685
40457892 

WWWW