[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241341 
IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-241545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0841 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL / ERN SD...EXTREME NERN NEBRASKA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241341Z - 241545Z

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 14-16 Z OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.  A WW COULD
BE REQUIRED.

LOW LEVEL JET HAS TRANSPORTED RICH MOISTURE NWD INTO NEBRASKA JUST
ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION.  PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE OVER ERN
NEBRASKA ARE INDICATIVE OF THE MOIST RETURN...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE NWD INTO SD...WHERE THE LFC WILL BE REACHED.

MODELS ARE LIKELY UNDER FORECASTING THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG.  RAPIDLY BACKING WINDS ALOFT OVER
WRN SD/NEB ON LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE INDICATE LIFT WILL BE
INCREASING OVER THIS MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES / COLD AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE
INDICATE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

42839942 43079997 44210023 44859943 45249654 43499650
42699678 42619775 

WWWW