[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240855 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-241030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...WRN-CENTRAL PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270...

VALID 240855Z - 241030Z

BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS PORTIONS
WRN/CENTRAL PA...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY CROSSES
REMAINDER NERN OH.  EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH
ENOUGH BEHIND THIS COMPLEX THAT WW CAN BE CLEARED FROM W-E AS IT
PASSES.  INTERMITTENT GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA - BUT STILL
CAPABLE OF SOME DAMAGE -- COULD REACH GROUND THROUGH SHALLOW
NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER ACROSS REMAINDER PA PORTION OF WW AND OVER
CENTRAL PA FOR 1-2 HOURS AFTER SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION.  HIGHEST
MEASURED GUSTS SO FAR WITH THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE 44 KT AT VTA
IN CENTRAL OH...OVER TWO HOURS AGO AT 654Z -- WITH MOST AFFECTED
STATIONS REPORTING BELOW 35 KT.  EXPECT FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER TO
CONTINUE GRADUAL STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DIABATIC
COOLING...HOWEVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS/WRN SLOPES OVER PA MAY BECOME
OPTIMALLY EXPOSED TO STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.  ATTM THREAT APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL TO REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW FARTHER E...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

39817907 39618107 40818041 41108058 41148112 41838103
42017906