[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240609 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-240815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LOWER MI...OH...WRN PA...NRN PANHANDLE
OF WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269...270...

VALID 240609Z - 240815Z

MCS HAS MOVED OUT OF SRN INDIANA INTO SWRN OH AND WILL CROSS CENTRAL
PORTION WW 270 DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS...THOUGH LATEST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
INDICATE WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY APCHS CMH.  OTHER STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP S OF LE OVER OH.  ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS IN NRN PORTION WW 269...OVER LOWER MI...OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND MAY COMPEL CANCELLATION
OF WW 269 BEFORE 7Z.  WW 270 TRENDS ALSO WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE CANCELLATION BEFORE ITS SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDING CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL LM...WARM
FRONT EWD ACROSS LOWER MI FROM JUST N GRR TO NEAR PHN. COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE EWD ROUGHLY 20 KT ACROSS SERN LM AND SWRN LOWER MI. 
ALTHOUGH AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA REMAINS
UNSTABLE...LIFT IS WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY.  PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION. 
FURTHER...ASSOCIATED SHIFT OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING FARTHER
NE VEERS PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND IN TURN SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCES FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.  THEREFORE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER INDIANA/SWRN LOWER MI HAS DECLINED GREATLY.  A FEW
CELLS BETWEEN GRR-FNT EWD TOWARD THUMB MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY AS THEY
MOVE OVER WARM FRONT.  BEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION ATTM IS N OF WW 269
AND N OF FRONT...IN ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND WILL MOVE
NEWD TOWARD NRN LH WITH MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...CTP...PBZ...RLX...

39188455 43338497 43288299 

39837958 39278401 41448401 42007961 

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