[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222229 
PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-230000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250...

VALID 222229Z - 230000Z

LITTLE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN WW 250 ACROSS OH. THIS WATCH MAY BE
CANCELED EARLY.

WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 250 FROM
NWRN IND ATTM. AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF OH REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN OH WHERE LATEST RUC
SOUNDING ADJUSTED WITH SURFACE DATA PRODUCE MLCAPE OF 1800-2000
J/KG. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND STRONGEST MASS
TRANSPORT AND ASCENT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH WHERE
FRONTAL WAVE WAS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO. WHILE A FEW
STORMS MAY STILL INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WATCH AS BAND OF
RESIDUAL LIFT SPREADS SEWD FROM IND/MI CONVECTIVE LINE... CURRENT
TRENDS SUGGEST WW MAY BE CANCELED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION.

..CARBIN.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

41938383 41938042 40098197 40058536 

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