[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222252 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-230045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN IA...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222252Z - 230045Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT
WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE.  INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. MAGNITUDE
OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR
TORNADOES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL BE LEAST.

..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

41009163 40799512 42829582 42899363 42749194 42458958
41988821 40958819 40938910 

WWWW