[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222123 
NYZ000-PAZ000-222300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0423 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN PA AND WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222123Z - 222300Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCRG DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WRN PA/NY AND
TCU ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE BREEZE FRONT ACROSS ERIE AND
WYOMING COUNTIES OF WRN NY. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING LOWER MI WILL
AID RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 50KT WLY FLOW AT
500MB COUPLED WITH 30-40KT SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LARGE
HAIL...WIND AND TORNADO HAZARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

41707764 41128012 42247974 43207715 43387583 41717564