[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222052 
KSZ000-OKZ000-222215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222052Z - 222215Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN CENTRAL KS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD TO NW OF GAG.  VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS EASILY REACHED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE AND
INITIATION IS JUST A QUESTION OF MASS FIELDS AND UVVS. AREA
PROFILERS SHOW LOW LEVEL JET BACKING AND THIS WILL RE-FOCUS DEEP LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE.  GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF UPPER
HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND A COUPLE MORE HOURS
OF HEATING...INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS.

SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL.  IF SUPERCELLS CAN FORM AND MOVE EWD INTO HIGHER
DEWPOINT / LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT...ALONG AND E OF I-35...STRONG
TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

36759810 36509931 36500023 37229993 38579932 39689954
39629830 39459712 

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