[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220648 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-220745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI/FAR NRN IND AND NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 220648Z - 220745Z

DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE...AND WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 08Z
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI/FAR NRN IND INTO NWRN OH...IF A COLD
POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH UPSTREAM STORMS CURRENTLY OVER NRN
IL/SRN WI/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/03Z RUC DATA INDICATED 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE WILL
BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS SRN LOWER MID/NRN
IND AND NRN/WRN OH...WHILE A 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL VEER TO WLY BY
12Z SUPPORTING AN EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS IN THE FORMS OF LINES OR
ONE BOW ECHO.  06 RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A COLD POOL IS TRYING TO
DEVELOP ATTM ACROSS FAR NRN IL/SERN WI...WITH A LINE OF STORMS
EXTENDING FROM NERN IL INTO SWRN LAKE MI AND MOVING TO THE ESE AT 35
KT.  IF THE COLD POOL BECOMES STRONGER...DOWNSTREAM MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SWLY 35 KT LLJ WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...AS ACTIVITY TRACKS ESEWD ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LOCATED E-W OVER SRN LOWER MI.

..PETERS.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

42688618 42538293 41778222 41038265 40898364 41198584
41488704 

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