[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220625 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-220830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-ERN OH/WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 220625Z - 220830Z

ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN OH/LAKE ERIE
INTO WRN PA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED HAIL.  

WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN LAKE HURON AND
TRAILING SWWD TO NERN IL AT 05Z.  45 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WIND ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THE WNW-ESE
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IA ESEWD
ACROSS NRN IL/IND INTO CENTRAL OH...IS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG.  AREA VAD WIND DATA/RUC
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED A 30 KT SWLY LLJ IMPINGING ON THE
BOUNDARY FROM NRN IND TO NRN OH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT...AND A MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLUX FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN SUSTAINING A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION...WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORING A HAIL THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS.
 ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...VEERING LLJ TO NEARLY PARALLEL
TO LINE OF STORMS WILL FAVOR BACKBUILDING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OVER
CENTRAL/ERN OH AND TRAINING OF STORMS INTO ERN OH/WRN PA FOR A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT.

..PETERS.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

41498289 42028082 41767926 40827885 39877935 39788082
39788264 40438390 41158397 

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