[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220741 
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-220915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN IA/SWRN WI/NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245...

VALID 220741Z - 220915Z

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 245 ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN IA INTO SWRN
WI/NRN IL.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IA
/TO THE S OF ALO/...ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL FROM 30 NE MLI TO 45 S CGX. 
WV IMAGERY/BACKING MID-LEVEL WINDS OVER SWRN WI PER AREA VAD/WIND
PROFILER DATA INDICATED A SHORT WAVE AND/OR MCV WITH THE ONGOING MCS
ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA INTO WRN/SWRN WI. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW TWO
LINES OF STORMS...ONE OVER NERN IA AND THE SECOND DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL IA IN THE ERN PORTION OF WW 246.  AS THE MCV MOVES EWD
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...55 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL
IA WILL VEER TO THE WEST.  THIS LLJ COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND COLD POOLS IN THE WAKE OF LINES OF STORMS IN IA WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THESE LINES MOVE ESEWD AT 35-40KT.


ADDITIONAL ELEVATED HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NERN
PORTION OF WW 245.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PER 50+ KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH AN
INFLUX OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER LLJ FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WAA REGIME.

..PETERS.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

43019115 42418745 40648748 41409475 42329335 42579207 

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