[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220525 
SDZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-220730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB/FAR SE SD/WRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 243...244...

VALID 220525Z - 220730Z

TORNADO THREAT DIMINISHING ACROSS MUCH OF WW 243 AND WW 244...WITH
PRIMARY HAZARDS BECOMING HEAVY RAINFALL/LARGE HAIL. REPLACEMENT WW
IS LIKELY FOR ERN NEB/WRN IA BY 06Z.

DEVELOPING SW LOW LEVEL JET -- 50+ KT ALREADY EVIDENT IN FAIRBURY
NEB/LATHROP MO PROFILERS -- WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS/TRAINING ECHOES FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA.
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REGIME INTO LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
REGION. THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH
MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPE OF 2000 J/KG OR
GREATER.

PRIMARY SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL THREAT OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO -- AND POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO -- WILL REMAIN
FROM EXTREME ERN NEB INTO WRN IA INVOF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

..GUYER.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...DMX...

40319720 40319921 41079917 41959916 42099870 41999830
42789760 43609747 43949672 

42699685 42939385 41659386 41399685 

WWWW