[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220134 
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-220300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV...VA AND NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 220134Z - 220300Z

A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING SWD AND SHOULD AFFECT VA
AND SRN WV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST WITH THE LINE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE.

THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
THE LINE COULD CONTINUE SWD INTO VA LATE THIS EVENING. THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM IAD SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 15 KT AND THIS MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC CONCERNING STORM ORGANIZATION. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO
THIS WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IF THE STORMS CAN REMAIN ABOVE SEVERE
LIMITS.

..BROYLES.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...

37838139 38397929 38467765 37507712 36417744 36118076 

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