[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220037 
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-220200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0808
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...IA...NRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 236...242...

VALID 220037Z - 220200Z

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM NRN IA ACROSS
NRN IL. IN ADDITION...NEW CELLS MAY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE LINE
ACROSS NCNTRL IA AND NWRN IL. AS THE STORMS TRACK NEWD...THEY WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND
DAMAGE.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE TO WSW ACROSS NCNTRL
IA AD NRN IL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WHICH
WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A MID-LEVEL JET
EXISTS ACROSS SRN MN AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO JETS IS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXISTS ACROSS IA
AND NRN IL AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS DECREASING AS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESSEN
SOME BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR
SUPERCELLS.

..BROYLES.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

41529543 42499608 43189597 43049285 42769051 42178775
41098736 40628765 41179131 

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