[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220140 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-220315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0840 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 240...

VALID 220140Z - 220315Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL -- AND POSSIBLY ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS -- WILL
PERSIST WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS/MULTICELLS ACROSS WRN KS AND ERN
TX/OK PANHANDLES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CONTINUE REMAINING VALID
PORTIONS OF SEVERE WW 240.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH 00Z DDC/AMA SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS AND
ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES AHEAD OF DRYLINE. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AROUND 40 KTS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MAIN THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OWING TO
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

WITH TIME...LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING/SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO DIMINISHING TREND OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW
240...WITH EXPANSION/REISSUANCE OF WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GUYER.. 05/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

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