[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212030 
VAZ000-NCZ000-212230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233...

VALID 212030Z - 212230Z

CONTINUE WW.

DOWNSLOPE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE INHIBITING FACTOR TO INTENSE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT...IN MOIST VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE RICHMOND/NORFOLK AREAS. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS
REGION.  AS MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
CONTINUES EASTWARD OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST NEXT FEW HOURS...WARM
ADVECTION REGIME IN ITS WAKE LIKELY WILL SUPPORT NEW INTENSE
CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...AHEAD OF ONGOING
CLUSTER NEAR LYNCHBURG.  MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT BACKS TO A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS VIRGINIA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS WILL BE A RISK ALONG DEVELOPING
SURFACE COLD POOL.

..KERR.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RNK...

35937581 36007675 36717725 36757819 36797894 37347876
37727815 37877728 37917658 37807605 37457565 

WWWW