[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211922 
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-212115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SERN MT...WRN SD...NE PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211922Z - 212115Z

RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND
A WW WILL BE LIKELY BEFORE 21Z.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WY WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.  SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THEY INTENSIFY AND
DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT IS MORE UNSTABLE AND IS
QUICKLY BECOMING UNCAPPED WITH STRONG HEATING. 18Z RAP SOUNDING
SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES / COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRAIGHT LINE
HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL CAUSE FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE WIND PROFILES
FOR PROLIFIC LARGE HAILERS.  COLD DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL AS MODERATE
ENEWD STORM MOTIONS OF 20-30 KTS WILL ALSO CAUSE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

41070415 42060389 43430417 44050562 44240658 45110699
46300523 46110337 45490227 44430193 41030250 

WWWW