[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212131 
MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-212300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WV...SWRN PA...WRN MD...NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212131Z - 212300Z

A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WAS
MOVING QUICKLY SEWD AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THIS REGION
WITHIN THE HOUR.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AND VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. A SQUALL-LINE...AT THE NORTH END OF THE
INSTABILITY MAXIMUM...IS FEEDING OFF THIS HIGH INSTABILITY AND IS
MOVING QUICKLY EWD AT 45 KT. THE LINE SHOULD TAKE A MORE SELY TRACK
ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY MAXIMUM. THE LINE SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF WW 235 AND 239 AND INTO WV...FAR NRN VA AND WRN MD OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A REAR INFLOW JET PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE LINE...WILL HELP KEEP THE LINE SUSTAINED TROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL.

..BROYLES.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

39887798 39328046 38828204 38158212 37438110 38127801
38717728 39547723 

WWWW