[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211628 
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-211830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTR/ERN VA...NE NC...SRN DELMARVA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211628Z - 211830Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW MAY BE
NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE
70F ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.  WITH ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MODELS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL APPROACH 3000 J/KG. 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTHWEST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE.  THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
REGION.

CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS READILY
EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...AND BELT OF MODERATE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET
WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT FORCING LIKELY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH EVOLVING
COLD POOL.  THUS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY
THREAT...IN ADDITION TO HAIL...AS INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
TOWARD/ACROSS THE RICHMOND/NORFOLK AREAS BY AROUND 21Z.

..KERR.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

35957566 35687662 36647840 36897948 37318057 37887951
38477811 38497682 38027590 37987533 

WWWW