[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211444 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-211715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN IA...WRN AND CENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211444Z - 211715Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY
15Z.

STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING ALONG WARM FRONT IN NWRN IA/SWRN MN AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD AS AIR MASS FEEDING THESE ELEVATED
STORMS DESTABILIZES FURTHER.  AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH BACKING AND
STRENGTHENING 500 MB FLOW FROM FSD TO LSE.  

GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING...STRONG SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS OF 40-50 KTS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY...CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS / MULTICELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL. 
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED INITIALLY...AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME UNCAPPED WITH CONTINUED HEATING...THEREBY
INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EVEN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...IF STRONG PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET CAN DEVELOP.

..JEWELL.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

42559637 43609635 44299576 45029309 44729051 43958954
41789115 42279435 

WWWW