[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211819 
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-212015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232...234...

VALID 211819Z - 212015Z

NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...HEAVY RAIN TOTALS WILL BECOME INCREASING THREAT ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO SHORTLY.

SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD AT UP TO 50 KTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.  ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR THE
DETROIT AREA AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 19Z...
AND AT ITS PRESENT RATE OF FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL PROGRESS
NEAR/NORTH OF CLEVELAND BY 20-21Z.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT HOW
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER LAKE ERIE...BUT IF ONGOING CLUSTER
WEAKENS... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR LAKE BREEZE AND
FRONTAL INTERSECTION DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE...WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM.

OTHERWISE...INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ALONG
TRAILING UPSTREAM OUTFLOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ON SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF WESTERLIES.  LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT
NEAR STRONGEST CELLS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TRAIN...CONTRIBUTING TO
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS...NEAR/NORTH OF FORT WAYNE INTO
THE TOLEDO AND CLEVELAND AREAS.

..KERR.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...

43017890 42487866 41677978 40418028 40438180 40878341
40938438 40848587 41028667 41508641 41798407 42358327
42708288 

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