[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211123 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-211230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228...229...230...

VALID 211123Z - 211230Z

WW/S 228/229/230 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12Z.

WIND PROFILER/VAD DATA SHOW THE STRONG NOCTURNAL LLJ HAS CONTINUED
TO VEER AND IS NOW ORIENTED WSWLY ACROSS CENTRAL IA/NWRN MO. 
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 11Z SHOWED A LOW OVER ERN NEB...20 SW OLU...WITH
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE NWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA.  THE
LLJ WILL FOCUS THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER...PER RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ACROSS FAR NERN
IA AND SWRN WI DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  MUCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG AND STRONG CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE STRONGEST STORM IS LOCATED IN FAYETTE
COUNTY IA...AND SHOULD EXIT THE ERN PORTION OF WW 230 BY 12Z.  

ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REST OF NRN IA INTO SRN MN...RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN STORM INTENSITIES.  THUS...THESE WW/S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 12Z.

..PETERS.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

42499114 42589376 43129652 43559652 44229638 44409597
44599200 43629114 

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