[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211234 
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-211400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/MUCH OF MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211234Z - 211400Z

FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AT 35-40 KT
ACROSS NRN VA AND WRN INTO CENTRAL MD THROUGH 14Z WITH MOST WIND
GUSTS RANGING FROM 30-40 KT...AND ISOLATED GUSTS AT OR EXCEEDING
SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF A WELL ESTABLISHED COLD
POOL EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL PA SWWD ALONG THE FAR ERN WV
PANHANDLE AT 1230Z.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH
MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDESPREAD
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING FOG ACROSS
NRN VA EWD TO DE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD WITH MCS HAS OVERSPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE SQUALL LINE...
INDICATING SURFACE HEATING AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
LIMITED.  DESPITE SEWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS AT UP TO 40 KT...STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER PER VIS IMAGERY/AREA 12Z RAOBS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THIS WIND SPEED...AS THESE STORMS
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.

..PETERS.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

38437930 39227829 39867751 39467632 38587675 37757744
37837887 

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