[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210934 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-211030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/NRN IA INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 228...229...230...

VALID 210934Z - 211030Z

NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/SRN WI IN THE NEXT HOUR...
AS THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL SPREADS/DEVELOPS
ENEWD BY 11Z.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LOCATED FROM
SERN SD EWD ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA...WHILE REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE
MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVING TO THE ENE AND SLOW NWD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS SRN MN.  SURFACE ANALYSES OVER THE
LAST 1-3 HOURS SHOW A CONTINUED NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO
EAST CENTRAL NEB NEAR OMA AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IA...WITH A
SURFACE WAVE NEAR AURORA NEB OR 25 E GRI.  65 KT SWLY LLJ PER SERN
NEB WIND PROFILERS/ VAD WINDS IS FOCUSING STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NRN IA/SRN MN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WRN/SWRN WI INTO
THE EARLY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING STRENGTH OF
LLJ...THEY DO SHOW THE LLJ WILL VEER TO WSWLY BY 12Z RESULTING IN AN
EWD TRANSLATION OF MCS/S INTO WI.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000
J/KG AND CAPE BEARING SHEAR OF 40-55 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT.

..PETERS.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

42189389 42279547 42689646 43479640 44349631 44599189
44648947 43648918 42548905 42189123 

WWWW