[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210032 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE IA...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222...

VALID 210032Z - 210200Z

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS NRN IL WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE
CONSIDERED IF AN MCS CAN ORGANIZE...CONTINUING A SEVERE THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR CHICAGO WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD ACROSS NRN IL...SERN IA INTO NWRN MO. SHORT
LINES OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT. IR SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF COOLING TOPS. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN IL AND
INTO FAR NRN IND LATE TONIGHT. THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING SHOWS VERY
UNSTABLE AIR AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVELS ARE WARM...THE STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING STORMS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINES.

..BROYLES.. 05/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX...

40719235 41459240 41719133 42708823 42738762 41818756
40978766 40868968 

WWWW