[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202353 
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 223...

VALID 202353Z - 210200Z

CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROW SWD INTO THE PECOS
VALLEY/DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN NM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN/INFLOW INCREASES INTO THEM AND THEY MOVE EWD INTO
THE WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLES. HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS AREA
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT ANOTHER WW NORTH OF WW 223 WILL
NOT BE NEEDED.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD AID IN
MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT WITH ONGOING AND/OR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WRN PORTIONS OF WW 223...WHERE MLCAPES RANGED FROM 1500-2000 J/KG.
INCREASING DIURNAL INHIBITION OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 223 WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WW VALID
TIME...UNLESS CONVECTIVE MERGERS CAN BEGIN AND CAN ORGANIZE A STRONG
ENOUGH COLD POOL THAT WOULD SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THIS
AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

30930419 34550484 35880476 36830344 36990254 34480269
30910220 

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