[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202234 
SDZ000-WYZ000-210030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202234Z - 210030Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION
AS IT MOVES NEWD FROM CENTRAL WY INTO NERN WY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INTENSIFY
OVER CENTRAL WY AS A VORT MAX AIDING IN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INTERACTS WITH NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S. CURRENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT 35 KT SWLY MID LEVEL
JET WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATE FEED INTO CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
ENEWD INTO NERN WY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS IT MOVES
FARTHER ENEWD...LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE INFLUX AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z...EAST OF THIS AREA SHOULD LIMIT A PROLONGED/MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT INTO FAR WRN SD/SERN MT THROUGH THAT TIME.

..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

42190612 42510733 42770882 43350902 44320877 44620734
44910545 44900457 44180399 42560455 

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