[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202225 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NWRN PA AND NRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202225Z - 210000Z

SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR NE OH AND FAR
NW PA. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
POSSIBLE. OTHER STORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PART OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO LOWER MI RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT THERE EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED FOR SRN LOWER MI
SHORTLY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM LAKE HURON EXTENDING SEWD
ACROSS WRN PA. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY
SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND NEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG IT.
SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F
WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER
THE AREA WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AS IT DRIFTS SEWD ACROSS NW PA AND
NE OH. THE DTX 20Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS WITH 45 KT AT
500 MB WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS
CONVECTION FROM LAKE MI CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 05/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

42468021 41617881 40897830 40227847 39897948 40028035
40348144 41008301 41558454 42408585 42988592 43668530
43748358 43398247 

WWWW