[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202202 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CO FRONT RANGE/NERN CO...SERN WY AND THE FAR
WRN NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202202Z - 210000Z

ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NRN CO FRONT RANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER
NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE WY
FRONT RANGE. IF CONTINUED HEATING CAN OCCUR OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT MY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WW BY 00Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND IMMEDIATE ROCKIES
WAS INCREASING. DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 45-53 DEG RANGE
OVER THIS AREA...A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ALOFT HAS LIMITED MORE
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UP THROUGH 22Z. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 2-3 DEG F...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO ENSUE. OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS
MODEST...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500-800 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-45 KTS/ ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

38430494 39490551 40900551 42110549 42350479 42220392
41730324 40040297 38530364 

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