[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202154 
IAZ000-MOZ000-202330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202154Z - 202330Z

ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN
IA. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NE TO SW FROM CNTRL WI
THROUGH CNTRL IA INTO NE KS. A CAP IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BUT
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS
ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP. AS A RESULT... SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A
MODIFIED 18Z SOUNDING FROM DVN SHOWS 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 4500
 J/KG OF MLCAPE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LCLS BELOW 1200
METERS ACROSS SRN IA. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT
ACROSS SCNTRL AND SWRN IA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 05/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

40939168 40729207 40539292 40419399 40379523 40779573
41269572 42079448 42199249 41999167 41389151 

WWWW