[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202043 
TXZ000-NMZ000-202215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM AND SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202043Z - 202215Z

ISOLATED SUPERCELL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
WRN CHAVES COUNTY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
DAVIS/GUADALUPE MTNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINAL FOR WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A WW.

LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING CIN/DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE DAVIS/GUADALUPE MTNS. INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS UNDER
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING ESELY UPSLOPE WINDS
INTO THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD AID IN SLOW EWD STORM
MOTIONS FROM 10-15 KTS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT...GIVEN THE 30-35 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...TO GIVE A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONAL HIGH
TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SELY LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING THIS EVENING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET
INCREASING INHIBITION TO PERSIST A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH 02Z.

..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

30500416 31320481 31920506 33380523 33860472 33880372
33710342 32990306 31940298 30790308 30440329 

WWWW