[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201846 
NMZ000-COZ000-202015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201846Z - 202015Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MTNS OF ERN NM....WITH SEVERE WINDS POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO
THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE WIND THREAT.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN
ROOTED IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MTNS. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING LIFT AND
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE BEGINNINGS OF CU ALONG THE DRYLINE EAST OF CQC INDICATED
THAT INHIBITION WAS WEAKENING EAST OF THE MTNS. ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF
HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO
MOVE OFF THE MTNS AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE.  ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE MTNS IN ERN NM...WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S...THAT AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
IS EXPECTED. THUS GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE SHEAR
PROFILE...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

32900542 33840552 34970560 36220535 36750523 37000461
37040395 36810367 35390353 33770402 32870426 

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