[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201829 
NYZ000-202030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEW YORK STATE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201829Z - 202030Z

WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORT WAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTING OUT
OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP
HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW. WHILE STRONGEST 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED INTO SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC...PRESSURE FALL
AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/NORTHERN LAKE ERIE AREA.

IN FACT...A SMALL AREA OF RAPID PRESSURE FALLS WAS EVIDENT AN HOUR
OR SO AGO ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF STRONGER FORCING...WHICH APPEARS
LIKELY TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE 21-22Z
TIME FRAME.  AS THIS OCCURS...INFLUX OF MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID
DESTABILIZATION.  MODELS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG EAST OF BUFFALO INTO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WHERE
AT LEAST ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATELY STRONG AND VEERING WIND PROFILES
WITH HEIGHT BELOW SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW RISK OF A TORNADO.

..KERR.. 05/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF...

44357575 43497643 42987669 42547739 42447817 42477887
42657901 

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