[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201809 
MTZ000-202015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201809Z - 202015Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW. 


LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE EARLY STAGES OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN MT TO THE SW OF SIDNEY AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF HAVRE. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF SWRN MT. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN THE
AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S...MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA
PRODUCE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE
RATES..LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 6000 FT AGL AND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

47670950 48391069 48951055 48970428 47920428 47420479
47560757 

WWWW